2009 Manager Discussion & Analysis
Management Discussion and Analysis for Oak Associates Funds
for Fiscal Year Ended October 31, 2009
White Oak Select Growth Fund
Jim Oelschlager, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager
The White Oak Select Growth Fund (“The Fund”) gained 31.60% for the year, while
the comparative index, the S&P 500 Index, rose 9.80%, and the Lipper Large-Cap Growth
Average increased 14.74%.
The market swoon in 2008 correctly foreshadowed the sharp economic slowdown that
we have experienced this year. In last year’s commentary we wrote, “While there
are certainly issues to be concerned about, our bet is that the system will survive,
and that eventually stock prices will reconnect with company fundamentals.” This
proved to be accurate, as eventually fears of a systemic collapse abated, and stocks
rallied sharply, auguring economic recovery. Massive injections from both the Federal
Reserve and the federal government helped to jump-start the economy, and other measures
buoyed confidence in the system.
As usual, those that kept their head and stuck to their process were rewarded. Our
concentrated style and focus on long-term fundamentals paid off, as we achieved
returns besting those of the index and most of our peers. The Fund’s investment
in the information technology sector helped boost performance.
Strong performers for the year included Internet commerce giant Amazon.com, which
continues to gain market share from competitors and improve operating margins; information
technology services company Cognizant, which saw some of its large customers recover
from the global financial crisis; and customer relationship management software
provider Salesforce.com, whose customizable solutions are gaining popularity.
Laggards included financial companies Legg Mason and Charles Schwab, and biotech
bellwether Amgen. Legg Mason, an asset management company, suffered from outflows
in its funds. Broker Charles Schwab, which had held up well in the correction, was
hurt by fee waivers on its money market funds, a result of rock-bottom short-term
interest rates. Amgen lagged as investors lost interest in the more stable areas
of the market such as health care.
Looking ahead, there are areas of concern. At some point the Fed will need to start
draining liquidity from the system, the increasing role of government could slow
economic growth, and the ballooning federal budget deficit will have to be addressed.
We are very much aware of these issues as we manage the portfolio. That said, there
are quite a few positives. A global synchronized upturn should help drive an acceleration
in US GDP growth, with a decline in the unemployment rate to follow. We expect corporate
profits to be quite strong, given the combination of productivity gains, leaner
expense structures and recovering revenue. And the widespread skepticism about the
sustainability of this economic recovery is actually a positive, as it keeps expectations
in check.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
Pin Oak Aggressive Stock Fund
Mark Oelschlager, CFA
Portfolio Manager
The Pin Oak Aggressive Stock Fund (“The Fund”) rose 45.96% for the year ended October
31, 2009, while the comparative index, the S&P 500 Index, gained 9.80% and the Lipper
Multi-Cap Growth Average returned 16.30%.
The fear and panic that prevailed in late 2008 continued into 2009, as the market
started pricing in the possibility of a depression or the collapse of capitalism.
Capital preservation was paramount in people’s minds, and investors gravitated toward
the more stable areas of the market, eschewing anything with risk or of a cyclical
nature. In last year’s annual report, we wrote, “As we manage through this historically
challenging period, we have focused on positioning the portfolio to excel when conditions
improve, as they always do eventually. Importantly, the market is forward looking,
which means that stocks will turn long before the economy does.” With economically-sensitive
companies trading at extreme discounts and loads of fiscal and monetary stimulus
in the pipeline, we increased our cyclical exposure, while the natural urge in the
market, and the path most chose, was to do the opposite in order to preserve capital.
This move, which required us to suppress our natural human emotions, goes a long
way toward explaining the Fund’s strong performance for the past year.
Another important factor in performance was the return of valuation spreads to more
normal levels. At the beginning of the fiscal year, valuation spreads were four
standard deviations above the mean, indicating stocks were being valued in an unusually
wide range. This dispersion in valuations was almost unprecedented, and reflected
a high degree of stress in the market. Valuation always plays an important factor
in our analysis of stocks, but with stocks trading so disparately, we placed even
more emphasis on the factor, since we were being well compensated to do so. As fear
in the market subsided and investors began pricing in economic recovery, lowly valued
stocks benefited disproportionately, and many of our investments paid off.
The largest contributors to the strong performance were all consumer-oriented companies,
and all rose over 100%. E-commerce company Amazon.com continues to grow its sales
at an impressive rate by offering a strong value proposition to consumers. Internet
travel site Expedia saw a boost in business after eliminating booking fees. HSN
made operational progress under its new CEO.
Laggards included media company Gannett, which suffered from a slowdown in advertising;
semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials, which saw demand for its products
decline dramatically as capital spending dried up during the downturn; and biotech
firm Biogen IDEC, whose sales of its MS drug, Tysabri, were dragged down by increasing
incidence of a potentially fatal side effect.
The Fund maintains a tilt toward cyclicals, though not as much as there was a year
ago, as the risk-reward is not as overwhelmingly favorable as it was at that time.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
Rock Oak Core Growth Fund
Robert Stimpson, CFA
Portfolio Manager
The Rock Oak Core Growth Fund (“The Fund”) rose 24.86% for the fiscal year ending
10/31/2009. The Fund outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 Index and the Lipper Large-Cap
Growth Fund peer group, which gained 9.8% and 14.74% respectively. Since inception
on December 31, 2004, the Fund has lost 1.05% annually compared to the 1.16% annual
drop in the S&P 500.
The fiscal year 2009 saw global equities rebound from the sharp 2008 recession.
Although the economy and macroeconomic data remained weak throughout the year, the
stock market rose in anticipation of an eventual economic recovery. The sharp gains
were driven by the tremendous amount of monetary stimulus globally and by the coordinated
effort by global central banks to foster economic growth. The depth of the 2008
correction also positioned the market for a strong resurgence after concerns over
another Great Depression contracted valuations. While these fears were ultimately
unwarranted, they temporarily drove valuations to extremely attractive levels from
which the stock market rebounded. Throughout the year, investors’ distaste for equities
slowly transitioned into a renewed appetite for risk. This helped all stocks to
some degree, but propelled the Fund, which held highly sought after growth companies
with strong earnings prospects.
The Fund’s preference for companies with strong balance sheets and defensible business
models contributed to the strong long-term performance. Since the 2008 recession
was instigated by problems in the credit and housing markets, companies with strong
balance sheets that can operate independently of capital markets were able to avoid
credit-related problems. These characteristics were defensive during the recession,
but also offensive once confidence grew regarding a sustained global recovery.
A heavy exposure to technology stocks helped the Fund outperform the benchmark.
The technology sector was able to weather the recession well, by avoiding credit-related
problems and responding quickly to the economic slowdown. The sector also remains
one of the best positioned to capitalize on a sustained global recovery. Within
the Fund, Cognizant Technology Solutions rose over 101% during the year and was
a top holding for the Fund. The company, which had fallen sharply in 2008 on concerns
over its exposure to financial institutions, rebounded strongly as the credit crisis
eased. Top positions in Amazon.com and Apple also contributed to the Fund’s strong
performance.
Going forward, the Rock Oak Fund remains focused on growth investing. As the global
economic recovery progresses, companies with exposure to international markets are
likely to disproportionately benefit from the significant amounts of monetary stimulus
enacted by central banks worldwide. The Fund has gained exposure to this opportunity
through US companies with significant growth prospects overseas. The investment
outlook remains favorable due to the low interest rate environment, attractive valuations,
and economic momentum globally.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
River Oak Discovery Fund
Robert Stimpson, CFA
Portfolio Manager
The River Oak Discovery Fund (“The Fund”) rose 39.44% for the fiscal year ending
October 31, 2009. The Fund’s performance compares to the benchmark Russell 2000
Growth Index’s gain of 11.34% and Lipper Small-Cap Growth peer group category’s
13.12% rise. Since inception on June 30, 2005, River Oak has returned 2.83% annually.
Over the same time period, the Russell 2000 Growth Index lost 0.75% annually and
the Lipper Small-Cap category fell 2.01% annually.
In fiscal year 2009, stocks anticipated the eventual economic recovery from the
2008 recession. Small-cap stocks, in particular, benefited from the reversal of
high levels of risk aversion that developed during the credit crisis. As an asset
class, small-cap growth stocks are seen as having greater risk than larger companies.
They therefore succumbed to the volatile market and unfolding financial crisis.
The economic recession appeared so severe in early 2009 that selling pressure drove
stocks to deeply undervalued levels. As these problems abated in 2009, all stocks
benefited from a more rational valuation assessment and the markets rallied. Significant
monetary action by the Federal Reserve also helped propel small-cap companies, as
they tend to prosper in a low interest-rate environment.
Strong performance from the technology sector helped the Fund outperform its benchmark
small-cap growth index. The Fund was overweight technology stocks due to their strong
balance sheets and our anticipation of an eventual economic recovery. The tech sector,
which does not rely on capital markets to finance operations, was able to avoid
problems from the credit-crisis and responded quickly to the poor economic backdrop.
The Fund’s exposure to financial stocks also enhanced to the fiscal-year performance.
While the troubled sector weighed on the index’s performance, the Fund’s financial
holdings outperformed the benchmark. Approximately, 70% of the Fund’s outperformance
was achieved through stock selection.
The top-performing holding for the Fund was MercadoLibre, a Latin American e-commerce
company, which rose 161%. Despite the global recession, MercadoLibre’s exposure
to the healthy Brazilian economy and the expanding internet penetration through
South America propelled the stock. Elsewhere in the portfolio, EnerNOC, Inc. rocketed
335%. The company, which provides demand response technology for the utility industry,
is introducing intelligent equipment to manage energy usage for commercial customers.
Enernoc had fallen sharply in 2008 but its shares rebounded strongly this fiscal
year.
The global economic recovery, which rallied stocks in 2009, is still developing.
Although the economic data has remained weak for much of the year, the stock market
typically recovers before the macroeconomic indicators turn positive. The strength
in international markets, as well as the decisive action by central banks worldwide,
has increased the likelihood of a sustained recovery. This bodes well for small-cap
investors as psychology and risk aversion have been detrimental to the sector’s
performance, despite its long-term track record as one of the best performing asset
classes.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
Red Oak Technology Select Fund
Mark Oelschlager, CFA
Portfolio Manager
The Red Oak Technology Fund (“The Fund”) returned 43.09% for the year ended October
31, 2009, while the comparative index, the NASDAQ 100 Index, which includes holdings
within sectors beyond just technology, gained 25.81%, and the Lipper Science and
Technology Average rose 29.15%.
In last year’s report we talked about how attractive technology stocks looked, and
investors who held their positions in the sector were well rewarded over the past
year as the market started looking ahead to sunnier economic times. Given the cyclical
nature of the sector, tech stocks reacted very well during the market rally, and
the more economically-sensitive areas within the sector benefited the most.
Top performers in the Fund included e-commerce leader Amazon.com, which is gradually
becoming the Wal-Mart of the Internet due to its price leadership; disk drive maker
Seagate, who should benefit from a PC upgrade cycle; and online travel site Expedia,
which saw a boost in business after eliminating booking fees.
Poor performers included semiconductor equipment provider Applied Materials, which
saw demand for its products decline dramatically as capital spending dried up during
the downturn; telecommunications company Sprint Nextel, who was unable to stem the
tide of subscriber losses; and semiconductor designer Sigma Designs, which is expected
by some to lose market share.
Throughout the downturn, company managements within the sector cut costs aggressively,
which has helped to keep free cash flow margins at surprisingly high levels. These
cuts should help drive robust earnings growth as revenue continues to recover. Drivers
of demand growth for purveyors of technology products are numerous, and include
the increasing importance of technology in the consumer’s life, the need for corporations
to be more productive to remain competitive, and the significant exposure to international
markets. In addition, the cyclical upswing should provide support for business,
especially given the tremendous pent-up demand. The Fund is currently invested in
a wide range of industries within technology, such as semiconductors, software,
services, storage, e-commerce, and networking equipment. Our turnover remains low
and our time horizon long, which we believe gives us an advantage versus our peers,
so many of whom seem inclined to try to outsmart each other over interpretation
of the most recent data point.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
Black Oak Emerging Technology Fund
Robert Stimpson, CFA
Portfolio Manager
The Black Oak Emerging Technology Fund (“The Fund”) gained 34.36% during the fiscal
year ending October 31, 2009. The performance lagged that of the Lipper Science
and Technology Fund peer group’s rise of 37.04%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose
20.09% during the same period.
The technology sector was one of the best performing segments over the last year
due to its strong cash generation abilities and operational flexibility. As the
2008 recession developed, the tech sector responded quickly to the deteriorating
economic conditions by reducing inventory, overhead and other costs. This positioned
the sector’s earnings for strong operating leverage once sales growth reappeared.
Additionally, since technology companies typically do not rely on capital markets
to finance operations, the group avoided problems related to the credit markets.
The Black Oak Fund performed well this year as bleak economic conditions reversed
and investors once again embraced emerging technology companies. As the credit crisis
and global economic slowdown abated, the high levels of risk aversion gradually
dissolved. Given the Fund’s focus on small technology companies in emerging fields,
it had suffered disproportionately when investors shunned higher-risk strategies.
However, the unwinding of the elevated levels of risk aversion favored the high-growth
companies which the Fund owns.
The Fund’s best performing stock this year was MercadoLibre, a Latin American e-commerce
company, which rose 161%. Central banks worldwide have acted aggressively to restart
global growth. This highly simulative and loose monetary approach is likely to benefit
those companies with a large exposure to international sales. As the leading e-commerce
company in South America, MercadoLibre is a pure play on the region’s economic growth
and its share responded accordingly. Cognizant Technology Solutions, a top holding
for the Fund, also propelled returns. The IT-service company’s value proposition
of helping clients save money by outsourcing is even more powerful in a recession.
Going forward, the Fund will continue to seek emerging technology companies with
solid earnings prospects that are trading at attractive valuations. The Fund’s exposure
to companies with strong growth opportunities internationally may increase as the
significant stimulus enacted globally fuels adoption of technology products. The
renewed appetite for risk also bodes well for the Fund and the type of companies
it seeks. Given the cyclical nature of technology stocks, the group remains attractive
as the nascent global synchronized recovery progresses.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
Live Oak Health Sciences Fund
Mark Oelschlager, CFA
Portfolio Manager
The Live Oak Health Sciences Fund (“The Fund”) rose 16.03% for the year ended October
31, 2009, while the comparative index, the S&P 500 Health Care Index, gained 6.82%,
and the Lipper Health & Biotechnology Average returned 8.16%.
The last year saw the US and international economies in recession, a global financial
crisis that threatened to bring commerce to a standstill and a committed response
by authorities that seems to have stabilized the system and restarted the economy.
As it usually does in times of stress, the healthcare sector held up better than
the broader market, even as it dealt with its own issues, but also lagged the broader
market in the ensuing rally.
President Obama unveiled his healthcare agenda and worked with Congress on developing
a plan of reform for the sector. After the Congressional Budget Office gave its
assessment of what the President’s plan would cost, and the American public voiced
its own concern, politicians returned to the drawing board to craft a less ambitious
plan. These developments helped healthcare stocks rally, as it became clear that
the worst case scenario – from the market’s perspective – was not going to play
out.
Throughout the year, we tried to take advantage of the volatility caused by these
developments. In addition, we managed the portfolio to benefit from the compression
in valuation spreads that we expected. As risk aversion in the market subsided and
spreads narrowed to more normal levels, the Fund benefited.
Strong performers were concentrated in the pharmaceutical area, on both the product
and distribution side. A healthier generics market contributed to strong gains in
Par Pharmaceutical and Watson Pharmaceuticals, and rising prescription growth aided
distributors AmerisourceBergen and McKesson.
Laggards included institutional pharmacy company Pharmerica, which was hit by a
declining bed count; biopharmaceutical company Genzyme, which dealt with an infection
at its main manufacturing plant; and biotech bellwether Amgen, whose products are
facing regulatory risk.
Looking ahead, healthcare reform before the end of the calendar year is possible,
but might not occur until 2010. The likely outcome is broader insurance coverage
for Americans, which should increase the utilization of healthcare services, accompanied
by various types of price controls or other types of regulation. The sector will
be affected by the ultimate shape of the legislation in Washington, but it is important
to remember that the market is aware of this and has therefore already discounted
the impact it expects.
Read another commentary:
White Oak | Pin Oak | Rock Oak | River Oak | Red Oak |
Black Oak | Live Oak
Past performance is not an indication of future results. Click here for performance
information through the last complete quarter. Holdings are subject to change. Current
and future holdings are subject to risk. Click here for complete holdings through
last complete quarter.
The above commentaries represent the managers’ assessments of their respective Funds
and the market environment at a specific point in time and should not be relied
upon by the reader as research or investment advice.